I used to gamble on football, but lost too often.

I’d bet with my heart and not my head. I never could bring myself to bet against England or Chelsea.

But politics, especially US politics, is another matter. I love the US presidential elections. From this side of the Atlantic, distant from the fight, I can make dispassionate bets. For the second presidential election running I amused myself by trading on the Intrade political futures markets.

You trade contracts with other members of the exchange. If a candidate wins the contract is worth $10 if he/ she lose it is worth nothing. You do not have to hold a contract till the end, so you can change positions whenever you want.

For instance, after Sarah Palin made her appearance at the Republican convention, the odds swung for McCain, I sold McCain and bought Obama .When the Palin bounce evaporated, I bought McCain and sold Obama, making a nice profit. This strategy reduced the amount I had at risk on election night to an acceptable level.

Maybe there was some market manipulation going on. Perhaps McCain supporters were trying to create momentum by forcing his price up. Compared to what was spent on TV advertising it would have been a cheep way to create buzz.

Or maybe it was irrational exuberance of GOP supporters in the market. Either way, I did rather well out of it. You can see the results below.

I did similarly well in the primaries.

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